The 2026 NBA Draft is tonight at 8pm ET from Barclays Center in Brooklyn, and AJ Dybantsa is going first overall to the Washington Wizards — not officially, not yet, but the entire league has already treated it as settled fact for about three months now.
Shams Charania said as much on ESPN, putting it as plainly as you can without technically spoiling the pick: “The league-wide belief that I get, and the belief that I feel from talking to people I trust around the league, is that AJ Dybantsa is the favorite at 1.” His reasoning was fit — Dybantsa as a wing alongside Trae Young and Anthony Davis — which is a real trio that I refuse to let myself get excited about until I see a Washington team actually stay healthy for more than eleven games.
https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/2066502245894475809
The stats are not subtle. Twenty-five and a half points per game to lead the entire nation. Fifty-one percent from the field at 6’9” with a 6’11” wingspan. He broke Kevin Durant’s Big 12 Tournament freshmen scoring record, then went and dropped 43 on Utah in January like he was bored. Julius Erving Award winner. Consensus First Team All-American. The kid did not work out for any team because, in his words, “They know what I can do.” That’s either the most confident thing a prospect has ever said or the most Jets draft pick energy I’ve seen outside of my own team — and I mean that in the good way, for once.
There’s also the jersey number situation, which is genuinely the most entertaining pre-draft subplot of the last decade. On Gil’s Arena, Dybantsa told Trae Young flat-out: “If they draft me, I do need 3, Trae.” Trae has worn #3 since he got to Washington. DeMarcus Cousins called it “out of pocket.” My roommate — who does not watch basketball — was still able to explain this story to me yesterday, which tells you everything about how far it traveled.
Meanwhile the rest of the 2026 NBA Draft top four is quietly interesting too. Darryn Peterson at #2 to Utah is practically locked, though the Jazz are reportedly torn between Peterson and Cam Boozer. The wrinkle: Peterson only worked out for Washington, which is a flex move that would make exactly zero sense if he ends up going to Salt Lake City. Cam Boozer falls to Memphis at 3, Caleb Wilson to Chicago at 4. None of that is confirmed. All of it will change three times before 10pm.
And then there’s the wider chaos underneath the surface. The Giannis trade to Miami shook everything loose — the Bucks got back the 13th pick plus assets, and now every team picking in the middle of the first round is recalculating their board against a reshuffled East. Draft night feels genuinely unpredictable for the first time in years, which is saying something when the top pick has been a foregone conclusion since November.
I’m watching this from my couch in Hoboken with Revis asleep on my feet. The Wizards are picking first. Dybantsa is going to walk up to the podium in a Wizards hat. And at some point tonight, someone is going to ask Trae Young about his jersey number on live television.
I need that to happen more than I need basically anything else right now.
