Argentina plays Switzerland tonight at 9 PM ET and I am physically unable to feel confident about this, which is insane, because their No. 10 leads all scorers at this World Cup with 8 goals and is 39 years old and somehow running a better tournament than every 24-year-old on the planet.
The problem is Lautaro Martínez. Their striker. The guy who scores 25-plus goals a season for Inter Milan as his actual job. He has one goal in five tournament matches — a penalty against Jordan in the group stage. One. Penalty. Against Jordan.
https://x.com/FOXSports/status/2067055224791965959
Julián Álvarez, Argentina’s other forward, hasn’t scored in this tournament either. Against Egypt in the round of 16, Argentina went down 2-0 with barely ten minutes left. Messi had already missed a first-half penalty and been quiet all game. He still created the goal that started the comeback and scored the one that leveled it. A 39-year-old man rescued his team the way you rescue dinner after forgetting to defrost the chicken.
That’s where we are.
Switzerland is not Jordan. They’re not panicking when Messi gets the ball — Murat Yakin said as much this week: “We’ve realised that Argentina are not invincible.” Switzerland sits in their shape, forces you into low-percentage plays, and grinds you down until someone makes an error. They beat Colombia 4-3 on penalties in the round of 16. They don’t give you anything cheap.
Which means Argentina needs someone other than Messi to decide this match. That’s it. That’s the whole thing. And for five games, the supporting cast has handed him the torch every single time like, “you got it, boss.”
Here’s the part I’ll acknowledge: Switzerland is also not some assassin waiting to strike. They got to a quarterfinal for the first time since 1954. They’re a team of shape and patience and waiting for the mistake — they’re not going to blow anyone out. If Argentina scores first, Switzerland doesn’t have the personnel to go chasing three goals. The Swiss counter-attack depends on you coming undone first.
The thing is, Argentina almost came undone against Cape Verde. They survived a 3-2 scare in the round of 32. Against Egypt, they needed Messi to produce miracles from a quiet game to escape a 2-0 hole.
At some point — tonight, specifically — Lautaro Martínez has to be more than a penalty that happened three weeks ago. If he shows up, Argentina wins and we get Erling Haaland’s World Cup run against Messi in the semifinal, which is the matchup everyone on earth wants to see. If he disappears again, Switzerland grinds them to extra time, and I will spend 30 extra minutes aging in real time on my couch.
The anxiety is the point. Messi is too good for this to be stressful. And yet.
